AFL Round Eleven Preview – Part Deux

Part two of our look at this weekend’s round of AFL football.  I’m in no way receiving kickback from TABSportsbet, I’m simply using their markets as a guide.  If you can find a better price, then I wish you all the very best of luck.

Gambling is a problem for some.  If you think you may have a problem, or you know someone who does, visit Problem Gambling.

Brisbane Lions V Sydney Swans

Another match I’m tempted to stay out of is the Brisbane Lions V Sydney match.  Going with Brisbane only because of the ‘Gabba factor and even then it’s not with much confidence.

A great win by the Lions in Adelaide last week, but the Crows were abysmal.  North inaccuracy in front of the sticks kept Sydney in the match, so I’m staying out.  Nothing to temp punters either: the market has both sides at $1.87

Hawthorn V Fremantle

My admiration for Hawthorn is well known.  Freo – as mentioned earlier – have lapsed into something of a Jekyll and Hyde team – you just never know what you’re going to get.

Last week against St Kilda, we got the ugly Freo and the Saints tore them a new one.  Sandilands no closer to a return, although Michael Barlow resumes in the WAFL this weekend.  Good times ahead for Freo, but not this weekend.

TAB Sportsbet has Hawthorn at $1.10 and Fremantle at $6.00 or better.  The Hawks are always hard to roll at the MCG and this round won’t be any different.  There’s little to no value here, so the advice here is consider Hawthorn >39.5 at $1.75, or throw them in on the head-to-head as part of a multi-bet.

North Melbourne V Adelaide Crows

Another match with both sides offering little to enthuse about.  North and the Crows have made inconsistency their friend so far this season.  How do you explain the sub-AFL effort offered up by the Crows last week after seriously challenging Collingwood the way they did at Etihad two rounds ago?  In my opinion, North’s wayward kicking has, much like Carlton, cost them a few games thus far this season and I can’t see how they’ll turn it around in a week.

The Brent Harvey milestone match comes on the back of the selfishness storm in a thimble and North have a good record in milestone games.  Not awesome, just good.

Both teams are so dreadfully inconsistent; I’m sitting this one out.

Port Adelaide V Carlton

Carlton’s marketing team continues to get whacked for their “they know we’re coming” membership rallying call of last season.  The evidence to date suggests that the tagline may only have been 12 months too early.

They’ve struck a purple patch at the midway point of the season and with the addition of a few key players to return in coming weeks, everything’s on course for a second consecutive finals appearance for the lads from Parkville.  And this time, they won’t just be making up the numbers.

Port is just a disgrace (the suburb or the club I hear the cynical out there asking?).  Don’t be fooled by their win over Richmond in Darwin last weekend.  The club is in turmoil off the field and the playing list needs to weed out the tired old front-runners and let the hungry new blood come through.

Teams yet to be finalized at the time of going to press, but Carlton at $1.20 favorites while TABSportsbet has Port at $4.50.  Not a lot of value, again, but as this is the twilight game on Sunday evening, I’ll recommend adding the Bluebaggers head-to-head as part of a multi.

Suave’s Round 10 Special: A three-leg Multi-bet:

$10 outlay to $33.00 on Geelong <39.5 margin bet into Collingwood to beat St Kilda Head-to-head, into Hawthorn to beat Freo head-to-head.
Until next time,

Leave the gun, take the canolli’s and giddy up!

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