On The Punt; August 5th – 7th

Greetings and salutations!

Apologies for the delay in posting, but it’s been a busy few months.

Anyhoo… Time to make some suggestions on the punt for this weekend’s action.

First off, always gamble responsibly. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

The AFL competition is nearing the metaphorical clocktower for the home and away season.  Most people see the Premiership as a race in three between the Pies, Geelong and Hawthorn.

Round 20 action in the AFL backs this view up:  the fixture provides few headaches tip-wise and this is reflected in the markets.

There’s little value in most games without some speccing that would see the bravest of punters reaching for the Valuim, and two matches that – at least in my opinion anyway – punters should stay well clear of (Carlton V Melbourne and Essendon V Sydney).

This weekend, I’m launching into a TABSportsbet multi that is a tad on the speculative side, but in calculated fashion.

Leg 1 – StKilda to defeat Frematle by more than 39.5 points ($2.10)

Leg 2 – Adelaide to defeat Brisbane outright/head to head ($2.15)

Leg 3 – Hawthorn to defeat North Melbourne by between 20-39 points. ($4)

Leg 4 – OPTIONAL – NRL – Wests Tigers V St George Illawarra tri-bet; either side under 6.5 points

Without the Wests Tigers V St George Illawarra leg the estimated return is around the $18 mark for the minimum outlay.  If one were to include the NRL leg, we’re looking at a $47 return on [minimum] investment.

St Kilda V Fremantle: St Kilda are back on track after a slow start to the season.  Freo had their hearts broken by the Eagles in the most recent Derby, Hawthorn were able to land a knockout blow in the first quarter last week at Subi and Etihad Stadium is a graveyard for the purple haze at the best of times.

If St Kilda are truly building to peak for the finals, they need to put Freo to the sword.  Percentage could be the difference for St Kilda given the Saints ordinary start the season, so I’m confident they can roll Fremantle by seven goals or more.

Brisbane Lions V Adelaide: The spark is back at West Lakes with the departure of Neil Craig.  Brisbane are brave, but just don’t have the artillery to beat the free-wheeling Adelaide outfit that trounced Port last week.  It might be a close go however, so conservatively, Adelaide for the win.

Hawthorn V North Melbourne: Hawthorn shouldn’t face any trouble from North Melbourne in Tasmania.  The 20-39 points leg is a bit speculative – some could mount a case for Hawthorn to win by a greater margin – but Brad Scott’s North should never be totally written off.  I think Hawthorn have the edge and a three and a half to six and a half goal margin seems about right.

Wests Tigers V St George-Illawarra: Tonight’s NRL match where the Wests Tigers meet St George Illawarra will be a beauty, make no mistake.  I’ve outlined this as an option purely on the valueof a single leg more than doubling the return.

The Big Red V was stunned by the Bunnies last week and to say that Wayne Bennett has thrown the gauntlet down at his players feet would be an understatement akin to suggesting Mickey Rourke might not have got what he paid for vis-a-vis plastic surgery.

On the other side of the coin, the Tigers won against the odds last week, beating arch-rivals Manly and with Benji Marshall, and Robbie Farrah in peak form, nothing is impossible.  It’s hard to see this one being a blow-out, maybe even a golden goal deciding the result no surprise, so a tri-bet with either side winning by less than six and a half  points adds a lot of value to this weeks investment.

Good luck everyone!

Vote early, vote often. Buy lots, use many and leave the gun, take the canolli’s.

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